Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: SYDNEY (AUSTRALIA), HARD - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 30 October 2023, Monday


	Hiroki Moriya		Naoki Nakagawa

	1	2
	2	1.73	Watch
	2.1	1.65
	2.2	1.62
	2.27	1.66
	2.1	1.67	Watch
	2.09	1.68	Watch
	2.05	1.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↑ (1.83)	1.67 ↓ (1.83)

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hiroki Moriya
44.2%

Naoki Nakagawa
55.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.9%

47.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hiroki Moriya has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Hiroki Moriya's form might have worsened.

Naoki Nakagawa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Naoki Nakagawa's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hiroki Moriya than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Hiroki Moriya, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Naoki Nakagawa than the current prediction. (-8.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Naoki Nakagawa, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Hiroki Moriya - Naoki Nakagawa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Moriya is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Nakagawa is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Nakagawa could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to win of both players are almost equal.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hiroki Moriya
ATP Challenger
29.10.23	Hoang Nam Ly - Hiroki Moriya	1:2 ✺
28.10.23	Jayden Court - Hiroki Moriya	1:2 ✺
26.10.23	Hiroki Moriya - James Duckworth	1:2 ✺
25.10.23	Hiroki Moriya - Rio Noguchi	2:1 ✺
23.10.23	Dane Sweeny - Hiroki Moriya	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 WWLWW
- Naoki Nakagawa
ATP Challenger
25.10.23	Seong Chan Hong - Naoki Nakagawa	2:0 ✺
23.10.23	Blake Mott - Naoki Nakagawa	1:2 ✺
ATP Tokyo
14.10.23	Rinky Hijikata - Naoki Nakagawa	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
23.09.23	Naoki Nakagawa - Makoto Ochi	2:0 ✺
22.09.23	Naoki Nakagawa - Sora Fukuda	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LWLWW

Hiroki Moriya - Naoki Nakagawa: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide