Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Stockholm, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 16 October 2025, Thursday


	Jacob Fearnley		Elias Ymer

	1	2
	1.2	4.5	Watch
			Watch
	1.2	4.5
	1.2	5.01
	1.20	4.27	Watch
			Watch
	1.22	4.32	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.2 ↓ (1.32)	4.52 ↑ (2.97)

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jacob Fearnley
79%

Elias Ymer
21%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.2%

30.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.2%

27.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jacob Fearnley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Jacob Fearnley's performance.

Elias Ymer has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Elias Ymer might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jacob Fearnley than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Jacob Fearnley that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Elias Ymer than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Elias Ymer could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Jacob Fearnley - Elias Ymer Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Fearnley (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Ymer (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +4.5 Games - Ymer (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 20.5 Games - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Jacob Fearnley will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Fearnley (votes: 1 - 25%). Ymer (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Fearnley is ranked ATP: 81. Ymer is ranked ATP: 243.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Fearnley may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Fearnley is a strong favorite.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jacob Fearnley
ATP Stockholm
13.10.25	Tallon Griekspoor - Jacob Fearnley	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
08.10.25	Jacob Fearnley - Dominic Stephan Stricker	0:2 ✺
07.10.25	Jacob Fearnley - Luca Van Assche	2:1 ✺
Davis Cup World Group I
13.09.25	Tomasz Berkieta - Jacob Fearnley	Canceled ✺
12.09.25	Olaf Pieczkowski - Jacob Fearnley	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WLW??
- Elias Ymer
ATP Stockholm
14.10.25	Elias Ymer - Mikael Ymer	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
29.09.25	Elias Ymer - Elmer Moller	Ymer E. retired ✺
23.09.25	Guy Den Ouden - Elias Ymer	2:0 ✺
15.09.25	Elias Ymer - Sandro Kopp	0:2 ✺
08.09.25	Elias Ymer - Facundo Diaz Acosta	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 W?LLL

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