Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Zagreb, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday


	Jan Choinski		Arthur Fery

	1	2
			Watch
	1.65	2.1	Watch
	1.55	2.3	Watch
	1.73	2.22
	1.59	2.24	Watch
	1.62	2.2	Watch
	1.65	2.11	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↓ (1.85)	2.2 ↑ (1.85)

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jan Choinski
57.4%

Arthur Fery
42.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.4%

53.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jan Choinski has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Jan Choinski's performance.

Arthur Fery has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Arthur Fery might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jan Choinski than the current prediction. (-11%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Jan Choinski that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arthur Fery than the current prediction. (+11%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Arthur Fery could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.9%	0%	23.1%

Jan Choinski - Arthur Fery Predictions

Users Predictions: Jan Choinski will win (10 of 12 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.24% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Jan Choinski will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Choinski is ranked ATP: 122. Fery is ranked ATP: 157.

Now, both players are in good form.

Fery may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Choinski is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Arthur Fery - the odds 1.85 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jan Choinski
ATP Challenger
14.05.26	Jan Choinski - Chris Rodesch	2:1 ✺
14.05.26	Jan Choinski - Daniel Elahi Galan	2:1 ✺
13.05.26	Jan Choinski - Juan Pablo Ficovich	2:1 ✺
ATP Roma
05.05.26	Christian Garin - Jan Choinski	2:1 ✺
04.05.26	Dusan Lajovic - Jan Choinski	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WWWLW
- Arthur Fery
ATP Challenger
14.05.26	Arthur Fery - Yannick Theodor Alexandrescou	2:1 ✺
14.05.26	Arthur Fery - Dominic Stephan Stricker	2:0 ✺
11.05.26	Arthur Fery - Vitaliy Sachko	2:0 ✺
23.04.26	Andrea Guerrieri - Arthur Fery	2:0 ✺
21.04.26	Dan Added - Arthur Fery	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WWWLW

Jan Choinski - Arthur Fery: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide