Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Kigali, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 3 March 2026, Tuesday


	Jay Clarke		Calvin Hemery

	1	2
	1.67	2.1	Watch
	1.8	1.9
	1.7	1.95	Watch
	1.69	2.05	Watch
	1.68	2.03	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↓ (1.84)	2.01 ↑ (1.84)

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jay Clarke
54%

Calvin Hemery
46%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.4%

53.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jay Clarke has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Calvin Hemery has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jay Clarke than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Jay Clarke that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Calvin Hemery than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Calvin Hemery could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Jay Clarke - Calvin Hemery Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Clarke will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Hemery will win (votes: 3 - 75%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Clarke (votes: 2 - 50%). Hemery (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Clarke is ranked ATP: 184. Hemery is ranked ATP: 314.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Clarke may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Clarke won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jay Clarke
ATP Challenger
26.02.26	Masamichi Imamura - Jay Clarke	2:0 ✺
24.02.26	Yusuke Takahashi - Jay Clarke	0:2 ✺
23.02.26	Denis Yevseyev - Jay Clarke	Canceled ✺
20.02.26	Oliver Crawford - Jay Clarke	2:1 ✺
19.02.26	Alexandr Binda - Jay Clarke	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LW?LW
- Calvin Hemery
ATP Challenger
17.02.26	Timofey Skatov - Calvin Hemery	2:0 ✺
16.02.26	Max Houkes - Calvin Hemery	0:2 ✺
15.02.26	Cyril Vandermeersch - Calvin Hemery	0:2 ✺
08.02.26	Calvin Hemery - Felix Balshaw	1:2 ✺
03.02.26	Raul Brancaccio - Calvin Hemery	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
12.11.19	Calvin Hemery - Jay Clarke	0:2

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