Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Soma Bay, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 21 November 2025, Friday


	Mathys Erhard		Maxim Mrva

	1	2
	2.38	1.53	Watch
			Watch
	2.3	1.52	Watch
	2.14	1.63	Watch
	2.16	1.62	Watch
	2.17	1.61
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↓ (2.34)	1.58 ↑ (1.52)

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mathys Erhard
41.5%

Maxim Mrva
58.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.4%

60.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.8%

64.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mathys Erhard has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Maxim Mrva has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mathys Erhard than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mathys Erhard that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Maxim Mrva than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Maxim Mrva could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	0%	85.7%

Mathys Erhard - Maxim Mrva Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Mrva (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Maxim Mrva will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Erhard is ranked ATP: 316. Mrva is ranked ATP: 361.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Mrva could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Erhard won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0. (average 2:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mathys Erhard
ATP Challenger
20.11.25	Mathys Erhard - Pietro Orlando Fellin	2:1 ✺
18.11.25	Mathys Erhard - Matthew Summers	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
05.11.25	Mathys Erhard - Dali Blanch	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
28.10.25	Mathys Erhard - Dan Added	0:2 ✺
23.10.25	Mathys Erhard - Alejandro Moro Canas	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WWLLL
- Maxim Mrva
ATP Challenger
20.11.25	Vadym Ursu - Maxim Mrva	1:2 ✺
18.11.25	Pedro Vives Marcos - Maxim Mrva	Vives Marcos P. retired ✺
22.10.25	Maxim Mrva - Chris Rodesch	1:2 ✺
19.10.25	Maxim Mrva - Harry Wendelken	0:2 ✺
18.10.25	Maxim Mrva - Dimitar Kuzmanov	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 W?LLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
17.09.25	Maxim Mrva - Mathys Erhard	0:2
05.05.24	Mathys Erhard - Maxim Mrva	2:0

Mathys Erhard - Maxim Mrva: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide