Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Bastad, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 16 July 2026, Thursday


	Jesper De Jong		Sebastian Baez

	1	2
	1.80	2.00	Watch
	1.83	1.95
	1.87	1.9	Watch
	1.91	1.99
	1.84	1.92	Watch
	1.89	1.96
	1.83	1.97	Watch
	1.81	1.93
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↓ (2.49)	1.95 ↑ (1.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Jesper De Jong
51.4%

Sebastian Baez
48.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.6%

62.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.6%

63.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jesper De Jong has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Jesper De Jong's performance.

Sebastian Baez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sebastian Baez might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jesper De Jong than the current prediction. (-14.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Jesper De Jong that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sebastian Baez than the current prediction. (+14.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sebastian Baez could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	0%	60%

Jesper De Jong - Sebastian Baez Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. De Jong will win (votes: 8 - 40%). Baez will win (votes: 12 - 60%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Baez: 38.5% – 81.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. De Jong (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Preview

De Jong is ranked ATP: 73. Baez is ranked ATP: 56.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, De Jong won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Sebastian Baez - the odds 1.5 are the expected chance of winning is 62.41%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jesper De Jong
ATP Bastad
13.07.26	Jesper De Jong - Vilius Gaubas	2:0 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
01.07.26	Jesper De Jong - Joao Fonseca	0:3 ✺
30.06.26	Jesper De Jong - Rinky Hijikata	3:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
16.06.26	Jesper De Jong - Laslo Djere	0:2 ✺
14.06.26	Jesper De Jong - Roberto Carballes Baena	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WLWLW
- Sebastian Baez
ATP Bastad
14.07.26	Max Dahlin - Sebastian Baez	1:2 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
29.06.26	Jan-Lennard Struff - Sebastian Baez	3:2 ✺
Exhibition Boodles Challenge Men
25.06.26	Sebastian Baez - Alexander Shevchenko	2:0 ✺
24.06.26	Hubert Hurkacz - Sebastian Baez	2:0 ✺
23.06.26	Sebastian Baez - Thanasi Kokkinakis	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
24.01.20	Jesper De Jong - Sebastian Baez	1:2

Upcoming Matches