Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: Berlin, grass - Quarter-finals

Date: 19 June 2026, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Super Tennis


	Jessica Pegula		Madison Keys

	1	2
	1.67	2.2	Watch
	1.65	2.20
	1.65	2.15
	1.72	2.3
	1.72	2.17	Watch
	1.73	2.1
	1.68	2.22	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↓ (1.9)	2.19 ↑ (1.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jessica Pegula
56.5%

Madison Keys
43.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.4%

45.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jessica Pegula has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Jessica Pegula's performance.

Madison Keys has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Madison Keys might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jessica Pegula than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Madison Keys than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
68%	0%	32%

Jessica Pegula - Madison Keys Predictions

Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Pegula will win (votes: 16 - 66.7%). Keys will win (votes: 8 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Pegula: 47.8% – 85.6%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

H/A, 1st Set - Pegula (1.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (2.23) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Jessica Pegula will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Pegula (votes: 5 - 83.3%). Keys (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Pegula is ranked WTA: 4. Keys is ranked WTA: 28.

Pegula has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Keys is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Keys may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Pegula won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:4. (average 1.3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jessica Pegula
WTA Berlin
17.06.26	Jessica Pegula - Katerina Siniakova	2:0 ✺
WTA Roland Garros
26.05.26	Kimberly Birrell - Jessica Pegula	2:1 ✺
WTA Roma
13.05.26	Jessica Pegula - Iga Swiatek	0:2 ✺
11.05.26	Jessica Pegula - Anastasia Potapova	2:0 ✺
10.05.26	Jessica Pegula - Rebeka Masarova	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WLLWW
- Madison Keys
WTA Berlin
18.06.26	Madison Keys - Karolina Muchova	2:0 ✺
16.06.26	Madison Keys - Xin Yu Wang	2:0 ✺
WTA Roland Garros
01.06.26	Madison Keys - Diana Shnaider	1:2 ✺
30.05.26	Victoria Mboko - Madison Keys	1:2 ✺
28.05.26	Antonia Ruzic - Madison Keys	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

WTA Australian Open
25.01.26	Jessica Pegula - Madison Keys	2:0
WTA Adelaide
11.01.25	Jessica Pegula - Madison Keys	1:2
WTA US Open
04.09.23	Madison Keys - Jessica Pegula	2:0
WTA San Diego
14.10.22	Jessica Pegula - Madison Keys	2:0

Jessica Pegula - Madison Keys: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide