Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Sioux Falls - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 19 October 2025, Sunday


	Joshua Sheehy		Keegan Smith

	1	2
			Watch
	2.44	1.54
	4.23	1.19	Watch
	2.37	1.55	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.01 ↑ (2.2)	1.43 ↓ (1.56)

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Joshua Sheehy
32.1%

Keegan Smith
67.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.5%

58.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.3%

59.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Joshua Sheehy has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Joshua Sheehy's form might have worsened.

Keegan Smith has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Keegan Smith's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Joshua Sheehy than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Joshua Sheehy, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Keegan Smith than the current prediction. (-8.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Keegan Smith, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Joshua Sheehy - Keegan Smith Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Sheehy is ranked ATP: 635. Smith is ranked ATP: 558.

Sheehy is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Smith has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Sheehy may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Joshua Sheehy
ATP Challenger
12.10.25	Karl Poling - Joshua Sheehy	2:1 ✺
28.09.25	Joshua Sheehy - Bor Artnak	1:2 ✺
22.09.25	Joshua Sheehy - Andrew Fenty	1:2 ✺
21.09.25	Maxwell McKennon - Joshua Sheehy	0:2 ✺
14.09.25	Joshua Sheehy - Erik Arutiunian	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LLLWL
- Keegan Smith
ATP Challenger
16.10.25	Brandon Holt - Keegan Smith	2:1 ✺
14.10.25	Keegan Smith - Jeri Lassila	2:0 ✺
13.10.25	Aidan McHugh - Keegan Smith	0:2 ✺
12.10.25	Joan Torres Espinosa - Keegan Smith	0:2 ✺
28.09.25	Keegan Smith - Carlo Alberto Caniato	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LWWWL

Joshua Sheehy - Keegan Smith: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide