Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Curitiba - Qualification, clay - Final

Date: 13 October 2025, Monday


	Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio		Mateus Alves

	1	2
			Watch
	1.89	1.87
	2.95	1.36	Watch
	1.77	1.93	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↑ (1.63)	1.72 ↓ (2.22)

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio
43.8%

Mateus Alves
56.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.7%

42.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.7%

44.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio's form might have worsened.

Mateus Alves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Mateus Alves's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio than the current prediction. (+11.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mateus Alves than the current prediction. (-11.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Mateus Alves, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Juan Pablo Varillas Patino Samudio - Mateus Alves Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Varillas is ranked ATP: 313. Alves is ranked ATP: 462.

Recent performances by Varillas have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Alves is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Varillas may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Varillas will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Mateus Alves - the odds 2.22 are the expected chance of winning is 42.34%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio
ATP Challenger
13.10.25	Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio - Percy Buffara	2:0 ✺
11.10.25	Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio - Gonzalo Bueno	1:2 ✺
08.10.25	Alvaro Guillen Meza - Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio	1:2 ✺
07.10.25	Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio - Samuel Heredia	2:0 ✺
23.09.25	Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio - Hugo Dellien	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WLWWL
- Mateus Alves
ATP Challenger
13.10.25	Enzo Camargo Lima - Mateus Alves	0:2 ✺
10.10.25	Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera - Mateus Alves	2:0 ✺
09.10.25	Mateus Alves - Federico Agustin Gomez	2:0 ✺
07.10.25	Guido Ivan Justo - Mateus Alves	0:2 ✺
06.10.25	Juan Alejandro Hernandez - Mateus Alves	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 WLWWW

Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio - Mateus Alves: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide