Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Cali, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 10 October 2025, Friday


	Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera		Mateus Alves

	1	2
	1.3	3.4	Watch
			Watch
	1.3	3.2	Watch
	1.33	3.52
	1.17	4.34	Watch
	1.32	3.23	Watch
	1.84	1.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↓ (1.84)	3.26 ↑ (1.85)

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera
70.3%

Mateus Alves
29.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.1%

49.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52%

48%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+20.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera's performance.

Mateus Alves has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-20.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mateus Alves might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera than the current prediction. (-18.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mateus Alves than the current prediction. (+18.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mateus Alves could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera - Mateus Alves Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Alves (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +4.5 Games - Alves (1.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Alves (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Barrios Vera is ranked ATP: 137. Alves is ranked ATP: 462.

Currently, both players are in excellent shape.

Alves may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Barrios Vera won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 50.14%, but this team recently wins 61% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera
ATP Challenger
09.10.25	Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera - Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi	2:0 ✺
07.10.25	Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera - Juan Alejandro Hernandez	2:0 ✺
03.10.25	Daniel Vallejo - Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera	2:0 ✺
01.10.25	Lautaro Midon - Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera	0:2 ✺
29.09.25	Genaro Alberto Olivieri - Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WWLWW
- Mateus Alves
ATP Challenger
09.10.25	Mateus Alves - Federico Agustin Gomez	2:0 ✺
07.10.25	Guido Ivan Justo - Mateus Alves	0:2 ✺
06.10.25	Juan Alejandro Hernandez - Mateus Alves	0:2 ✺
05.10.25	Salvador Price - Mateus Alves	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
25.09.25	Mateus Alves - Natan Rodrigues	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
19.11.24	Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera - Mateus Alves	2:1

Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera - Mateus Alves: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide