Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: ASTANA (KAZAKHSTAN), HARD (INDOOR) - 1/8-FINALS

Date: 29 September 2023, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	SportKlub
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Croatia	SportKlub
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 2
France	beIN Sports Max
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovenia	SportKlub


	Jurij Rodionov		Sebastian Baez

	1	2
	2.38	1.57	Watch
	2.3	1.6
	2.5	1.52	Watch
	2.34	1.61
	2.66	1.54
	2.3	1.62	Watch
	2.19	1.68	Watch
	2.35	1.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↑ (2.11)	1.59 ↓ (1.72)

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jurij Rodionov
40.1%

Sebastian Baez
59.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45%

55%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.8%

56.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jurij Rodionov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Sebastian Baez has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jurij Rodionov than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sebastian Baez than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
29.2%	0%	70.8%

Jurij Rodionov - Sebastian Baez Predictions

Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Rodionov will win (votes: 7 - 29.2%). Baez will win (votes: 17 - 70.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Baez: 52.6% – 89%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Rodionov is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Baez is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Baez could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The chances to win of two players are almost the same in this match.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jurij Rodionov
ATP Astana
28.09.23	Gregoire Barrere - Jurij Rodionov	1:2 ✺
27.09.23	Jose-Rubin Statham - Jurij Rodionov	0:2 ✺
26.09.23	Evgeny Donskoy - Jurij Rodionov	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
18.09.23	Andrea Pellegrino - Jurij Rodionov	2:1 ✺
Davis Cup World Group I
16.09.23	Jurij Rodionov - Joao Sousa	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WWWL?
- Sebastian Baez
Davis Cup World Group I
17.09.23	Sebastian Baez - Vilius Gaubas	Canceled ✺
16.09.23	Sebastian Baez - Richard Berankis	2:1 ✺
ATP US Open
02.09.23	Daniil Medvedev - Sebastian Baez	3:0 ✺
31.08.23	Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves - Sebastian Baez	Meligeni Alves F. retired ✺
29.08.23	Sebastian Baez - Borna Coric	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 ?WL?W

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