Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Indian Wells, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 9 March 2026, Monday


	Daniil Medvedev		Sebastian Baez

	1	2
	1.17	5	Watch
	1.16	5.2	Watch
	1.16	6.1
	1.17	5.3	Watch
	1.14	5.5	Watch
	1.16	5.9	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.16 ↓ (1.17)	5.5 ↑ (4.85)

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Daniil Medvedev
82.6%

Sebastian Baez
17.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

80.6%

19.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daniil Medvedev has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Sebastian Baez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	0%	14.3%

Daniil Medvedev - Sebastian Baez Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Medvedev will win (votes: 6 - 85.7%). Baez will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2.5 Games - Medvedev (1.25) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Medvedev (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Medvedev is ranked ATP: 11. Baez is ranked ATP: 53.

Medvedev is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Baez is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Medvedev may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Medvedev is the obvious favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Medvedev won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Daniil Medvedev
ATP Indian Wells
07.03.26	Daniil Medvedev - Alejandro Tabilo	2:0 ✺
ATP Dubai
28.02.26	Daniil Medvedev - Tallon Griekspoor	Medvedev D. walkover ✺
27.02.26	Felix Aliassime-Auger - Daniil Medvedev	0:2 ✺
26.02.26	Daniil Medvedev - Jenson Brooksby	2:0 ✺
25.02.26	Daniil Medvedev - Stanislas Wawrinka	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 W?WWW
- Sebastian Baez
ATP Indian Wells
07.03.26	Sebastian Baez - Jiri Lehecka	2:0 ✺
05.03.26	Chun Hsin Tseng - Sebastian Baez	0:2 ✺
ATP Santiago
28.02.26	Sebastian Baez - Luciano Darderi	0:2 ✺
27.02.26	Alejandro Tabilo - Sebastian Baez	0:2 ✺
26.02.26	Christian Garin - Sebastian Baez	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP US Open
02.09.23	Daniil Medvedev - Sebastian Baez	3:0

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