Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Noumea (New Caledonia), hard - Semi-finals

Date: 3 January 2025, Friday


	Jurij Rodionov		Shintaro Mochizuki

	1	2
	1.8	1.91	Watch
	1.8	1.91
	1.82	1.89	Watch
	1.79	2.03	Watch
	1.8	1.91	Watch
	1.83	1.89	Watch
	1.82	1.89
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↓ (1.85)	1.92 ↑ (1.87)

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jurij Rodionov
51.5%

Shintaro Mochizuki
48.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.3%

49.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.7%

49.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jurij Rodionov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Shintaro Mochizuki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jurij Rodionov than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shintaro Mochizuki than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Jurij Rodionov - Shintaro Mochizuki Predictions

Users Predictions: Jurij Rodionov will win (10 of 12 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.24% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Rodionov is ranked ATP: 175. Mochizuki is ranked ATP: 235.

Recent matches Rodionov is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Mochizuki is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both players are almost equal.

Our prediction for today's Mochizuki to win the game is with odds 1.78.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jurij Rodionov
ATP Challenger
02.01.25	Enzo Couacaud - Jurij Rodionov	1:2 ✺
01.01.25	Benoit Paire - Jurij Rodionov	1:2 ✺
31.12.24	Blake Bayldon - Jurij Rodionov	0:2 ✺
18.11.24	Jurij Rodionov - Rei Sakamoto	0:2 ✺
16.11.24	Jurij Rodionov - Alexander Blockx	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WWWLL
- Shintaro Mochizuki
ATP Challenger
02.01.25	Shintaro Mochizuki - Taisei Ichikawa	2:0 ✺
31.12.24	Andre Ilagan - Shintaro Mochizuki	1:2 ✺
30.12.24	Keisuke Saitoh - Shintaro Mochizuki	0:2 ✺
29.11.24	Shintaro Mochizuki - Rei Sakamoto	1:2 ✺
28.11.24	Shintaro Mochizuki - Li Tu	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WWWLW

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