Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Cassis, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 5 September 2025, Friday


	Jurij Rodionov		Valentin Vacherot

	1	2
	2.2	1.62	Watch
	2.2	1.6	Watch
	2.2	1.57	Watch
	2.45	1.59
	2.29	1.59	Watch
			Watch
	2.27	1.59	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↑ (1.85)	1.59 ↓ (1.84)

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jurij Rodionov
41.3%

Valentin Vacherot
58.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.9%

50.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.8%

50.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jurij Rodionov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Jurij Rodionov's form might have worsened.

Valentin Vacherot has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Valentin Vacherot's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jurij Rodionov than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Jurij Rodionov, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Valentin Vacherot than the current prediction. (-8.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Valentin Vacherot, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
26.7%	0%	73.3%

Jurij Rodionov - Valentin Vacherot Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Rodionov will win (votes: 4 - 26.7%). Vacherot will win (votes: 11 - 73.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vacherot: 50.9% – 95.7%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 21.5 Games - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 9.5 Games, 1st Set - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Valentin Vacherot will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Rodionov is ranked ATP: 154. Vacherot is ranked ATP: 216.

Rodionov is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Vacherot has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Vacherot may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Vacherot might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Rodionov won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Valentin Vacherot - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 50.14%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jurij Rodionov
ATP Challenger
04.09.25	Jurij Rodionov - Robin Bertrand	2:0 ✺
03.09.25	Jurij Rodionov - Matteo Martineau	2:0 ✺
31.08.25	Daniel Rincon - Jurij Rodionov	2:0 ✺
30.08.25	Jurij Rodionov - Edas Butvilas	2:1 ✺
29.08.25	Daniel Masur - Jurij Rodionov	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WWLWW
- Valentin Vacherot
ATP Challenger
04.09.25	Michael Mmoh - Valentin Vacherot	0:2 ✺
03.09.25	Clement Chidekh - Valentin Vacherot	0:2 ✺
28.08.25	Jay Dylan Hara Friend - Valentin Vacherot	2:1 ✺
27.08.25	Valentin Vacherot - Martin Landaluce	2:0 ✺
15.08.25	Timofey Skatov - Valentin Vacherot	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Madrid
22.04.24	Valentin Vacherot - Jurij Rodionov	2:1

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