Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: Australian Open, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 23 January 2026, Friday

Location: Melbourne Park (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN
Australia	Stan Sport
Belgium	HBO Max, HBO Max
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	HBO Max
Brazil	ESPN
Bulgaria	HBO Max
Canada	RDS App
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	HBO Max
Czech-republic	HBO Max
Denmark	HBO Max
Finland	HBO Max
France	HBO Max
Hungary	HBO Max
Mexico	ESPN
Moldova	HBO Max
Montenegro	HBO Max
Netherlands	HBO Max
North-macedonia	HBO Max
Norway	HBO Max
Peru	ESPN
Poland	HBO Max
Romania	HBO Max
Serbia	HBO Max
Slovenia	HBO Max
Spain	HBO Max
Sweden	HBO Max
United-kingdom	Discovery+
Usa	ESPN USA
Venezuela	ESPN


	Karolina Pliskova		Madison Keys

	1	2
	5.5	1.14	Watch
	5.6	1.15	Watch
	5.75	1.17
	5.48	1.15	Watch
	5.5	1.14
	5.64	1.15	Watch
	5.5	1.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.57 ↑ (3.95)	1.15 ↓ (1.25)

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Karolina Pliskova
17.1%

Madison Keys
82.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24%

76%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Karolina Pliskova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Karolina Pliskova's form might have worsened.

Madison Keys has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Madison Keys's recent form is better than expected.

Karolina Pliskova - Madison Keys Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Pliskova (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Keys (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -4.5 Games - Keys (1.67) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 Sets - Pliskova (2.41) (votes: 8 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

O/U 19.5 Games - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Pliskova (votes: 10 - 76.9%). Keys (votes: 3 - 23.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Pliskova is ranked WTA: 1057. Keys is ranked WTA: 9.

Keys's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Keys may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Keys is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Pliskova won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Karolina Pliskova
WTA Australian Open
21.01.26	Janice Tjen - Karolina Pliskova	0:2 ✺
19.01.26	Karolina Pliskova - Sloane Stephens	2:0 ✺
WTA Adelaide
09.01.26	Sorana Cirstea - Karolina Pliskova	Canceled ✺
WTA Brisbane
04.01.26	Karolina Pliskova - Hailey Baptiste	Canceled ✺
ATP Challenger
01.10.25	Karolina Pliskova - Lina Gjorcheska	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.3 WW??L
- Madison Keys
WTA Australian Open
21.01.26	Ashlyn Krueger - Madison Keys	0:2 ✺
19.01.26	Oleksandra Oliynykova - Madison Keys	0:2 ✺
WTA Adelaide
14.01.26	Victoria Mboko - Madison Keys	2:1 ✺
13.01.26	Tereza Valentova - Madison Keys	0:2 ✺
WTA Brisbane
08.01.26	Aryna Sabalenka - Madison Keys	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

WTA Brisbane
11.01.20	Madison Keys - Karolina Pliskova	1:2

Karolina Pliskova - Madison Keys: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide