Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: Tokyo, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 28 October 2026, Wednesday ⏱️ In 3h 26m 📅 Remind Me

Location: Tokyo 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Leylah Annie Fernandez		Elise Mertens

	1	2
	2	1.8	Watch
	1.98	1.80
	1.94	1.84
	1.99	1.86	Watch
	2	1.82
	2.01	1.82	Watch
	1.92	1.82
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↑ (1.87)	1.82 ↓ (1.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.75

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leylah Annie Fernandez
48%

Elise Mertens
52%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.4%

48.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leylah Annie Fernandez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Elise Mertens has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leylah Annie Fernandez than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Elise Mertens than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	0%	62.5%

Leylah Annie Fernandez - Elise Mertens Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Fernandez will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Mertens will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mertens: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Fernandez is ranked WTA: 23., and Mertens is ranked WTA: 14..

Fernandez is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Mertens has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Fernandez may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Fernandez has recorded 2 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 4:5 (averaging 1:1.3 goals per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Elise Mertens - the odds 1.87 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leylah Annie Fernandez
WTA Tokyo
27.10.26	Leylah Annie Fernandez - Himeno Sakatsume	2:0 ✺
WTA Ningbo
25.10.26	Elena Rybakina - Leylah Annie Fernandez	2:0 ✺
24.10.26	Leylah Annie Fernandez - Marie Bouzkova	2:0 ✺
23.10.26	Leylah Annie Fernandez - Ekaterina Alexandrova	2:1 ✺
21.10.26	Leylah Annie Fernandez - Aliaksandra Sasnovich	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WLWWW
- Elise Mertens
WTA Tokyo
26.10.26	Moyuka Uchijima - Elise Mertens	0:2 ✺
WTA Ningbo
19.10.26	Elise Mertens - Leylah Annie Fernandez	1:2 ✺
WTA Wuhan
13.10.26	Daria Snigur - Elise Mertens	2:0 ✺
WTA Beijing
10.10.26	Qinwen Zheng - Elise Mertens	2:0 ✺
09.10.26	Elise Mertens - Iga Swiatek	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

WTA Ningbo
19.10.26	Elise Mertens - Leylah Annie Fernandez	1:2
WTA Dubai
16.02.25	Elise Mertens - Leylah Annie Fernandez	2:0
WTA Guadalajara
19.09.23	Leylah Annie Fernandez - Elise Mertens	2:0
WTA Australian Open
08.02.21	Leylah Annie Fernandez - Elise Mertens	0:2

Leylah Annie Fernandez - Elise Mertens