Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Toronto, hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 28 July 2025, Monday


	Liam Draxl		Pablo Carreno-Busta

	1	2
	1.53	2.5	Watch
	1.57	2.35
	1.54	2.42	Watch
	1.57	2.54
	1.52	2.49	Watch
	1.57	2.38	Watch
	1.59	2.39	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↓ (1.62)	2.44 ↑ (2.3)

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Liam Draxl
61.1%

Pablo Carreno-Busta
38.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.7%

41.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.2%

37.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Liam Draxl has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Pablo Carreno-Busta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Liam Draxl than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pablo Carreno-Busta than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Liam Draxl - Pablo Carreno Busta Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2.5 Games - Draxl (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Liam Draxl will win (28 of 35 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 66.75% – 93.25%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Liam Draxl will win (16 of 17 users predict this - 94.12%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 18 Selected Experts predict this event. Draxl (votes: 17 - 94.4%). Carreno Busta (votes: 1 - 5.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Draxl is ranked ATP: 115. Carreno Busta is ranked ATP: 92.

Draxl is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Carreno Busta has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Draxl may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Draxl is seen as the favorite.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Liam Draxl
ATP Challenger
20.07.25	August Holmgren - Liam Draxl	2:0 ✺
19.07.25	Liam Draxl - Alexander Blockx	2:0 ✺
18.07.25	Alexis Galarneau - Liam Draxl	1:2 ✺
17.07.25	Kris van Wyk - Liam Draxl	0:2 ✺
16.07.25	Alfredo Perez - Liam Draxl	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LWWWW
- Pablo Carreno-Busta
ATP Wimbledon
30.06.25	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Chris Rodesch	Canceled ✺
ATP Challenger
13.06.25	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Gauthier Onclin	0:2 ✺
11.06.25	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Javier Barranco Cosano	2:0 ✺
09.06.25	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Titouan Droguet	2:0 ✺
03.06.25	Denis Yevseyev - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 ?LWWL

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