Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Lyon, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 9 June 2025, Monday


	Pablo Carreno-Busta		Titouan Droguet

	1	2
	1.67	2.1	Watch
	1.72	2	Watch
	1.7	2	Watch
	1.71	2.08	Watch
	1.57	2.25	Watch
	1.69	2.07	Watch
	1.65	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↑ (1.44)	2.09 ↓ (2.64)

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pablo Carreno-Busta
55.5%

Titouan Droguet
44.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.7%

35.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.8%

38.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pablo Carreno-Busta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Pablo Carreno-Busta's form might have worsened.

Titouan Droguet has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Titouan Droguet's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pablo Carreno-Busta than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Pablo Carreno-Busta, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Titouan Droguet than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Titouan Droguet, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Pablo Carreno Busta - Titouan Droguet Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Carreno Busta will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Droguet will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Droguet: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Titouan Droguet will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Carreno Busta is ranked ATP: 99. Droguet is ranked ATP: 234.

Carreno Busta is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Droguet has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Droguet may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Carreno Busta will hold a modest advantage in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pablo Carreno-Busta
ATP Challenger
03.06.25	Denis Yevseyev - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:0 ✺
ATP Roland Garros
28.05.25	Francis Tiafoe - Pablo Carreno-Busta	3:0 ✺
25.05.25	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Francisco Comesana	3:0 ✺
ATP Roma
07.05.25	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:1 ✺
06.05.25	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Roman Andres Burruchaga	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLWLL
- Titouan Droguet
ATP Roland Garros
23.05.25	Titouan Droguet - Yannick Hanfmann	1:2 ✺
22.05.25	Titouan Droguet - Arthur Gea	2:1 ✺
20.05.25	Borna Coric - Titouan Droguet	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
17.05.25	Titouan Droguet - Zsombor Piros	0:2 ✺
16.05.25	Chris Rodesch - Titouan Droguet	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 LWWLW

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