Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Lesa, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 23 August 2025, Saturday


	Lorenzo Carboni		Oleksandr Ovcharenko

	1	2
			Watch
	1.9	1.78
	1.5	2.52
	1.18	4.16	Watch
	1.83	1.83
	1.47	2.53	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↑ (1.56)	2.56 ↑ (2.2)

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorenzo Carboni
61.9%

Oleksandr Ovcharenko
38.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.5%

41.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.2%

45.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorenzo Carboni has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Oleksandr Ovcharenko has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lorenzo Carboni than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lorenzo Carboni that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oleksandr Ovcharenko than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Oleksandr Ovcharenko could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Lorenzo Carboni - Oleksandr Ovcharenko Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Carboni (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

H/A, 1st Set - Carboni (1.77) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Carboni (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Carboni is ranked ATP: 563. Ovcharenko is ranked ATP: 378.

In recent matches, Carboni has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Ovcharenko is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Ovcharenko may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Carboni will hold a modest advantage in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lorenzo Carboni
ITF Tournaments
22.08.25	Lorenzo Carboni - Giovanni Fonio	2:0 ✺
21.08.25	Lorenzo Carboni - Denis Constantin Spiridon	2:0 ✺
19.08.25	Alexey Vatutin - Lorenzo Carboni	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
12.08.25	Gianmarco Ferrari - Lorenzo Carboni	2:1 ✺
12.08.25	Jan Kumstat - Lorenzo Carboni	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WWWL?
- Oleksandr Ovcharenko
ITF Tournaments
22.08.25	Oleksandr Ovcharenko - Juan Cruz Martin Manzano	2:0 ✺
21.08.25	Oleksandr Ovcharenko - Giovanni Oradini	2:1 ✺
20.08.25	Oleksandr Ovcharenko - Luca Parenti	2:0 ✺
02.08.25	Oleksandr Ovcharenko - Franco Roncadelli	0:2 ✺
01.08.25	Carlo Alberto Caniato - Oleksandr Ovcharenko	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WWWLW

Lorenzo Carboni - Oleksandr Ovcharenko: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide