Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Hersonissos, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 3 March 2026, Tuesday


	Lorenzo Carboni		Stefanos Sakellaridis

	1	2
	3.25	1.33	Watch
	3.1	1.33	Watch
	3.1	1.32	Watch
	3.3	1.35
	3.1	1.32	Watch
	3.25	1.33	Watch
	3.09	1.32	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.17 ↑ (2.78)	1.33 ↓ (1.38)

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorenzo Carboni
29.5%

Stefanos Sakellaridis
70.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.2%

66.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.5%

66.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorenzo Carboni has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Stefanos Sakellaridis has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorenzo Carboni than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stefanos Sakellaridis than the current prediction. (-4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	0%	83.3%

Lorenzo Carboni - Stefanos Sakellaridis Predictions

Users Predictions: Stefanos Sakellaridis will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Carboni is ranked ATP: 439. Sakellaridis is ranked ATP: 224.

In recent matches, Carboni has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Sakellaridis is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Sakellaridis may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Sakellaridis is considered a favorite.

We predict that Sakellaridis will win today's game, with odds of 1.38.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Carboni won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lorenzo Carboni
ATP Challenger
02.03.26	Luca Potenza - Lorenzo Carboni	0:2 ✺
01.03.26	Stephanos Schinas - Lorenzo Carboni	0:2 ✺
23.02.26	Lorenzo Carboni - Yuta Shimizu	0:2 ✺
15.02.26	Lorenzo Carboni - Manish Sureshkumar	1:2 ✺
11.02.26	Lorenzo Carboni - Federico Agustin Gomez	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 WWLLL
- Stefanos Sakellaridis
ATP Challenger
24.02.26	Manas Manoj Dhamne - Stefanos Sakellaridis	2:0 ✺
22.02.26	Stefanos Sakellaridis - Oliver Crawford	2:1 ✺
21.02.26	Stefanos Sakellaridis - Felix Gill	2:0 ✺
20.02.26	Stefanos Sakellaridis - Rio Noguchi	2:0 ✺
19.02.26	Beibit Zhukayev - Stefanos Sakellaridis	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
13.11.24	Stefanos Sakellaridis - Lorenzo Carboni	0:2

Lorenzo Carboni - Stefanos Sakellaridis: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide