Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: DUBAI (UNITED ARAB EMIRATES), HARD - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 27 February 2024, Tuesday


	Lorenzo Musetti		Arthur Cazaux

	1	2
	2.75	1.44	Watch
	2.6	1.48	Watch
	2.7	1.45	Watch
	2.79	1.49
	2.75	1.44	Watch
	2.82	1.44	Watch
	2.75	1.46
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.74 ↑ (2.3)	1.46 ↓ (1.63)

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorenzo Musetti
34.7%

Arthur Cazaux
65.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.5%

58.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.1%

58.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorenzo Musetti has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lorenzo Musetti's form might have worsened.

Arthur Cazaux has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Arthur Cazaux's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorenzo Musetti than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lorenzo Musetti, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arthur Cazaux than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Arthur Cazaux, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.1%	0%	57.9%

Lorenzo Musetti - Arthur Cazaux Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Musetti will win (votes: 8 - 42.1%). Cazaux will win (votes: 11 - 57.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cazaux: 35.7% – 80.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Musetti is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Cazaux is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Musetti could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Cazaux will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lorenzo Musetti
ATP Doha
19.02.24	Zhizhen Zhang - Lorenzo Musetti	2:0 ✺
ATP Rotterdam
12.02.24	Tallon Griekspoor - Lorenzo Musetti	2:1 ✺
ATP Marseille
07.02.24	Tomas Machac - Lorenzo Musetti	2:0 ✺
05.02.24	Maximilian Marterer - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2 ✺
05.02.24	Fabian Marozsan - Lorenzo Musetti	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 LLLW?
- Arthur Cazaux
ATP Dubai
25.02.24	Giulio Zeppieri - Arthur Cazaux	0:2 ✺
24.02.24	Damir Dzumhur - Arthur Cazaux	0:2 ✺
ATP Montpellier
01.02.24	Arthur Cazaux - Felix Aliassime-Auger	1:2 ✺
30.01.24	Maximilian Marterer - Arthur Cazaux	0:2 ✺
ATP Australian Open
21.01.24	Arthur Cazaux - Hubert Hurkacz	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WWLWL

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