Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 26 April 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV


	Tallon Griekspoor		Lorenzo Musetti

	1	2
	4	1.25	Watch
			Watch
	4.1	1.24
	4.6	1.25
	4.18	1.23	Watch
	4.5	1.2
	4.3	1.25	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.28 ↑ (2.95)	1.24 ↓ (1.39)

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tallon Griekspoor
22.4%

Lorenzo Musetti
77.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32%

68%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.8%

70.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tallon Griekspoor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tallon Griekspoor's form might have worsened.

Lorenzo Musetti has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lorenzo Musetti's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tallon Griekspoor than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tallon Griekspoor, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lorenzo Musetti than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lorenzo Musetti, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30%	0%	70%

Tallon Griekspoor - Lorenzo Musetti Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Griekspoor will win (votes: 3 - 30%). Musetti will win (votes: 7 - 70%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Musetti: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Musetti (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Griekspoor is ranked ATP: 33. Musetti is ranked ATP: 9.

Griekspoor has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Musetti has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Griekspoor may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Musetti is considered a favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Griekspoor won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 2:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tallon Griekspoor
ATP Madrid
24.04.26	Tallon Griekspoor - Damir Dzumhur	2:0 ✺
ATP Munich
14.04.26	Tallon Griekspoor - Denis Shapovalov	1:2 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
05.04.26	Gael Monfils - Tallon Griekspoor	2:1 ✺
ATP Marrakech
02.04.26	Luca Van Assche - Tallon Griekspoor	2:1 ✺
ATP Dubai
28.02.26	Daniil Medvedev - Tallon Griekspoor	Medvedev D. walkover ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WLLL?
- Lorenzo Musetti
ATP Madrid
24.04.26	Hubert Hurkacz - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2 ✺
ATP Barcelona
17.04.26	Arthur Fils - Lorenzo Musetti	2:0 ✺
16.04.26	Corentin Moutet - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2 ✺
14.04.26	Martin Landaluce - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
08.04.26	Lorenzo Musetti - Valentin Vacherot	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Rotterdam
12.02.24	Tallon Griekspoor - Lorenzo Musetti	2:1
ATP Australian Open
17.01.20	Tallon Griekspoor - Lorenzo Musetti	2:0

Tallon Griekspoor - Lorenzo Musetti: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide