Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Tokyo, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 30 September 2026, Wednesday


	Lorenzo Musetti		Arthur Fery

	1	2
	1.40	3.00
	1.40	2.90
	1.38	3.00	Watch
	1.39	2.85	Watch
	1.40	2.95
	1.43	2.96	Watch
	1.39	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↓ (1.44)	2.94 ↑ (2.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorenzo Musetti
67.8%

Arthur Fery
32.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.4%

34.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.3%

37.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorenzo Musetti has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Arthur Fery has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lorenzo Musetti than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lorenzo Musetti that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arthur Fery than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Arthur Fery could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Lorenzo Musetti - Arthur Fery Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Musetti is ranked ATP: 25., and Fery is ranked ATP: 36..

Both players have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

Musetti could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Musetti holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Musetti has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 3:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Lorenzo Musetti - the odds 1.44 are the expected chance of winning is 65.42%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lorenzo Musetti
ATP US Open
03.09.26	Dane Sweeny - Lorenzo Musetti	3:1 ✺
01.09.26	Arthur Fery - Lorenzo Musetti	0:3 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
21.08.26	Lorenzo Musetti - Francis Tiafoe	0:2 ✺
19.08.26	Jaime Faria - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2 ✺
18.08.26	Michael Zheng - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LWLWW
- Arthur Fery
Davis Cup World Group
20.09.26	Arthur Fery - Andres Andrade	Canceled ✺
19.09.26	Arthur Fery - Alvaro Guillen Meza	2:0 ✺
ATP US Open
01.09.26	Arthur Fery - Lorenzo Musetti	0:3 ✺
ATP Winston-Salem
29.08.26	Arthur Fery - Ignacio Buse	0:2 ✺
28.08.26	James Duckworth - Arthur Fery	Duckworth J. Retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 ?WLL?

Latest Head to Head

ATP US Open
01.09.26	Arthur Fery - Lorenzo Musetti	0:3

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