Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Cincinnati, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 21 August 2026, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Germany	Laola1


	Lorenzo Musetti		Francis Tiafoe

	1	2
	1.91	1.91	Watch
	1.90	1.91	Watch
	1.90	1.90	Watch
	1.95	1.96
	1.92	1.92	Watch
	1.90	1.96
	1.91	1.91	Watch
	1.91	1.94
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↓ (1.99)	1.93 ↑ (1.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 23.50

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorenzo Musetti
50.2%

Francis Tiafoe
49.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.4%

51.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.6%

47.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorenzo Musetti has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Francis Tiafoe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorenzo Musetti than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Francis Tiafoe than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20.7%	0%	79.3%

Lorenzo Musetti - Francis Tiafoe Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2.5 Games - Tiafoe (2.48) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

H/A, 1st Set - Tiafoe (1.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Francis Tiafoe will win (23 of 29 users predict this - 79.31%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.57% – 94.05%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Francis Tiafoe will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Tiafoe (votes: 7 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Musetti is ranked ATP: 15. Tiafoe is ranked ATP: 23.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Musetti won 2.

Musetti is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Tiafoe is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Musetti won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 11:10. (average 1.4:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Francis Tiafoe - the odds 1.86 are the expected chance of winning is 51.65%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lorenzo Musetti
ATP Cincinnati
19.08.26	Jaime Faria - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2 ✺
18.08.26	Michael Zheng - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2 ✺
16.08.26	Daniel Altmaier - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2 ✺
ATP Montreal
06.08.26	Rafael Jodar - Lorenzo Musetti	2:0 ✺
05.08.26	Nicolas Mejia - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WWWLW
- Francis Tiafoe
ATP Cincinnati
19.08.26	Francis Tiafoe - Felix Aliassime-Auger	2:0 ✺
18.08.26	Learner Tien - Francis Tiafoe	1:2 ✺
16.08.26	Lorenzo Sonego - Francis Tiafoe	0:2 ✺
ATP Montreal
06.08.26	Francis Tiafoe - Arthur Rinderknech	Tiafoe F. Retired ✺
04.08.26	Francis Tiafoe - Marin Cilic	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WWW?W

Latest Head to Head

ATP Roland Garros
03.06.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Francis Tiafoe	3:1
ATP Cincinnati
14.08.24	Lorenzo Musetti - Francis Tiafoe	0:2
ATP Stuttgart
16.06.23	Lorenzo Musetti - Francis Tiafoe	1:2
ATP Roma
16.05.23	Lorenzo Musetti - Francis Tiafoe	2:1
ATP United Cup
07.01.23	Francis Tiafoe - Lorenzo Musetti	Musetti L. retired
ATP Acapulco
17.03.21	Lorenzo Musetti - Francis Tiafoe	2:1
ATP Challenger
07.10.20	Francis Tiafoe - Lorenzo Musetti	2:1

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