Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Tokyo - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 28 September 2026, Monday


	Lorenzo Sonego		Kamil Majchrzak

	1	2
			Watch
	2.20	1.62
	2.23	1.62	Watch
	2.19	1.64
	2.25	1.65
	2.18	1.61	Watch
	2.20	1.63
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↑ (2.2)	1.63 ↑ (1.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 23.00

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorenzo Sonego
42.4%

Kamil Majchrzak
57.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.3%

51.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Lorenzo Sonego have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

The chances for Kamil Majchrzak have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorenzo Sonego than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lorenzo Sonego, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kamil Majchrzak than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Kamil Majchrzak, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Lorenzo Sonego - Kamil Majchrzak Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Sonego is ranked ATP: 86., and Majchrzak is ranked ATP: 73..

Sonego is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Performances by Majchrzak have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Majchrzak may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

These two players have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Last Results with these Odds

Lorenzo Sonego - the odds 2.2 are the expected chance of winning is 42.41%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Kamil Majchrzak - the odds 1.62 are the expected chance of winning is 57.59%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lorenzo Sonego
ATP Chengdu
25.09.26	Jenson Brooksby - Lorenzo Sonego	2:1 ✺
24.09.26	James Duckworth - Lorenzo Sonego	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
08.09.26	Lorenzo Sonego - Francesco Passaro	1:2 ✺
ATP US Open
01.09.26	Alexander Zverev - Lorenzo Sonego	3:2 ✺
ATP Winston-Salem
26.08.26	Lorenzo Sonego - James Duckworth	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LWLLL
- Kamil Majchrzak
ATP Hangzhou
26.09.26	Bu Yunchaokete - Kamil Majchrzak	2:1 ✺
24.09.26	Mattia Bellucci - Kamil Majchrzak	0:2 ✺
Davis Cup World Group I
20.09.26	Alex De Minaur - Kamil Majchrzak	2:0 ✺
19.09.26	James Duckworth - Kamil Majchrzak	1:2 ✺
ATP US Open
02.09.26	Valentin Vacherot - Kamil Majchrzak	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LWLWL

Lorenzo Sonego - Kamil Majchrzak: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide