Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Genova, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 8 September 2026, Tuesday


	Lorenzo Sonego		Francesco Passaro

	1	2
	1.57	2.25	Watch
	1.57	2.25
	1.56	2.35	Watch
	1.62	2.40
	1.56	2.28	Watch
	1.60	2.35
	1.57	2.25	Watch
	1.60	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↓ (1.8)	2.29 ↑ (1.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 23.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Lorenzo Sonego
59.1%

Francesco Passaro
40.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.5%

48.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.6%

46.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorenzo Sonego has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lorenzo Sonego's performance.

Francesco Passaro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Francesco Passaro might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lorenzo Sonego than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lorenzo Sonego that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Francesco Passaro than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Francesco Passaro could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Lorenzo Sonego - Francesco Passaro Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Preview

Sonego is ranked ATP: 89. Passaro is ranked ATP: 207.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Passaro may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Sonego won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Lorenzo Sonego - the odds 1.8 are the expected chance of winning is 51.48%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lorenzo Sonego
ATP US Open
01.09.26	Alexander Zverev - Lorenzo Sonego	3:2 ✺
ATP Winston-Salem
26.08.26	Lorenzo Sonego - James Duckworth	0:2 ✺
25.08.26	Adrian Mannarino - Lorenzo Sonego	0:2 ✺
24.08.26	Lorenzo Sonego - Vit Kopriva	Canceled ✺
ATP Cincinnati
16.08.26	Lorenzo Sonego - Francis Tiafoe	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLW?L
- Francesco Passaro
ATP US Open
02.09.26	Jesper De Jong - Francesco Passaro	3:2 ✺
28.08.26	Shintaro Mochizuki - Francesco Passaro	0:2 ✺
26.08.26	Francesco Passaro - Tom Gentzsch	2:0 ✺
24.08.26	Francesco Passaro - Felix Gill	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
14.08.26	Nicolas Kicker - Francesco Passaro	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
18.05.24	Lorenzo Sonego - Francesco Passaro	0:2
Exhibition Others Matches Tennis Men
30.06.20	Lorenzo Sonego - Francesco Passaro	2:0

Upcoming Matches