Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Oegstgeest, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 1 May 2025, Thursday


	Luca Castagnola		Stijn Slump

	1	2
	2.05	1.65
	2.12	1.68	Watch
	2.1	1.67
	2.1	1.67
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.09 ↑ (1.83)	1.67 ↓ (1.83)

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luca Castagnola
44.3%

Stijn Slump
55.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52%

48%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luca Castagnola has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Luca Castagnola's form might have worsened.

Stijn Slump has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Stijn Slump's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luca Castagnola than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Luca Castagnola, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stijn Slump than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Stijn Slump, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Luca Castagnola - Stijn Slump Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Castagnola is ranked ATP: 654. Slump is ranked ATP: 540.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Castagnola could have an advantage in physical - more days for rest in the last days.

In this match, the chances to achieve triumph for both players are almost equal.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Stijn Slump - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 73% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luca Castagnola
ITF Tournaments
29.04.25	Emilien Demanet - Luca Castagnola	1:2 ✺
09.04.25	Buvaysar Gadamauri - Luca Castagnola	2:1 ✺
03.04.25	Luca Castagnola - Moez Echargui	1:2 ✺
02.04.25	Luca Castagnola - Louis Tessa	2:0 ✺
16.03.25	Luca Castagnola - Tadeas Paroulek	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WLLWW
- Stijn Slump
ITF Tournaments
30.04.25	Niels Lootsma - Stijn Slump	0:2 ✺
25.04.25	Alex Molcan - Stijn Slump	2:0 ✺
24.04.25	Daniel Lara Salmeron - Stijn Slump	Lara Salmeron D. retired ✺
22.04.25	Philip Hjorth - Stijn Slump	1:2 ✺
04.04.25	Stijn Slump - Daniel Michalski	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 WL?WL

Luca Castagnola - Stijn Slump: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide