Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Centurion 2, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 1 June 2026, Monday


	Luca Castelnuovo		Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

	1	2
	1.53	2.34
	1.56	2.51
	1.53	2.34	Watch
	1.53	2.38
	1.53	2.34	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↓ (1.56)	2.38 ↑ (2.27)

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luca Castelnuovo
60.8%

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
39.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.3%

40.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.9%

46.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luca Castelnuovo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luca Castelnuovo than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Luca Castelnuovo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mario Gonzalez Fernandez than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mario Gonzalez Fernandez could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Luca Castelnuovo - Mario Gonzalez Fernandez Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Castelnuovo will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Castelnuovo is ranked ATP: 342. Gonzalez Fernandez is ranked ATP: 584.

In recent matches, Castelnuovo has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Gonzalez Fernandez is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Gonzalez Fernandez may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Castelnuovo could have a small edge in this match.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luca Castelnuovo
ATP Challenger
25.05.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Semen Pankin	0:2 ✺
05.05.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Ognjen Milic	1:2 ✺
04.05.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Evan Zhu	2:1 ✺
03.05.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Aoran Wang	Wang A. Retired ✺
ITF Tournaments
24.04.26	Alastair Gray - Luca Castelnuovo	Castelnuovo L. Retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LLW??
- Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
ATP Challenger
24.05.26	Mario Gonzalez Fernandez - Ofek Shimanov	0:2 ✺
11.05.26	Mario Gonzalez Fernandez - Cezar Cretu	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
07.05.26	Joao Dinis Silva - Mario Gonzalez Fernandez	2:1 ✺
05.05.26	Thomas John Fancutt - Mario Gonzalez Fernandez	0:2 ✺
29.04.26	Mario Gonzalez Fernandez - Francisco Rocha	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LLLWL

Luca Castelnuovo - Mario Gonzalez Fernandez: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide