Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Wuxi, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 5 May 2026, Tuesday


	Luca Castelnuovo		Ognjen Milic

	1	2
	2.25	1.57	Watch
	2.36	1.52	Watch
	2.67	1.52
	2.42	1.5	Watch
	2.38	1.53
	2.42	1.5	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.42 ↑ (2.28)	1.52 ↓ (1.54)

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luca Castelnuovo
38.7%

Ognjen Milic
61.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.3%

59.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.9%

66.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luca Castelnuovo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Ognjen Milic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luca Castelnuovo than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ognjen Milic than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	0%	60%

Luca Castelnuovo - Ognjen Milic Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Castelnuovo will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Milic will win (votes: 3 - 60%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Milic (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Castelnuovo is ranked ATP: 345. Milic is ranked ATP: 395.

Castelnuovo is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Milic has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Castelnuovo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Milic will hold a modest advantage in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luca Castelnuovo
ATP Challenger
04.05.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Evan Zhu	2:1 ✺
03.05.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Aoran Wang	Wang A. Retired ✺
ITF Tournaments
24.04.26	Alastair Gray - Luca Castelnuovo	Castelnuovo L. Retired ✺
23.04.26	Takuya Kumasaka - Luca Castelnuovo	0:2 ✺
23.04.26	Wishaya Trongcharoenchaikul - Luca Castelnuovo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 W??WW
- Ognjen Milic
ATP Challenger
03.05.26	Marat Sharipov - Ognjen Milic	Milic O. Walkover ✺
03.05.26	Yaojie Zeng - Ognjen Milic	1:2 ✺
30.04.26	Ognjen Milic - Fajing Sun	0:2 ✺
27.04.26	Ognjen Milic - Renta Tokuda	2:1 ✺
02.04.26	Ognjen Milic - Blake Ellis	Milic O. Retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 ?WLW?

Luca Castelnuovo - Ognjen Milic: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide