Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Centurion, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 25 May 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: Centurion 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Luca Castelnuovo		Semen Pankin

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Luca Castelnuovo
47.8%

Semen Pankin
52.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

42.1%

57.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.9%

55.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luca Castelnuovo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Luca Castelnuovo's performance.

Semen Pankin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Semen Pankin might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luca Castelnuovo than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Semen Pankin than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Castelnuovo is ranked ATP: 344. Pankin is ranked ATP: 518.

Castelnuovo has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Pankin is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Castelnuovo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Pankin might have a minor edge in this game.

We predict that Pankin will win today's game, with odds of 1.6.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luca Castelnuovo
ATP Challenger
05.05.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Ognjen Milic	1:2 ✺
04.05.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Evan Zhu	2:1 ✺
03.05.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Aoran Wang	Wang A. Retired ✺
ITF Tournaments
24.04.26	Alastair Gray - Luca Castelnuovo	Castelnuovo L. Retired ✺
23.04.26	Takuya Kumasaka - Luca Castelnuovo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LW??W
- Semen Pankin
ITF Tournaments
22.05.26	Semen Pankin - Vadym Ursu	0:2 ✺
21.05.26	Yanki Erel - Semen Pankin	1:2 ✺
20.05.26	Pablo Martinez Gomez - Semen Pankin	0:2 ✺
20.05.26	Gabriel Gomez - Semen Pankin	0:2 ✺
18.05.26	Cyril Vandermeersch - Semen Pankin	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 LWWWW

Luca Castelnuovo - Semen Pankin