Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Guangzhou 2, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 15 September 2026, Tuesday


	Luca Castelnuovo		Omar Jasika

	1	2
	2.20	1.62	Watch
	2.25	1.57
	2.32	1.58
	2.30	1.67
	2.37	1.52	Watch
	2.10	1.70
	2.27	1.56	Watch
	2.15	1.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↑ (2.1)	1.61 ↓ (1.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luca Castelnuovo
41.7%

Omar Jasika
58.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.3%

55.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.6%

59.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luca Castelnuovo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Omar Jasika has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luca Castelnuovo than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Omar Jasika than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Luca Castelnuovo - Omar Jasika Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Castelnuovo is ranked ATP: 461. Jasika is ranked ATP: 408.

Castelnuovo is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Jasika has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Castelnuovo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Jasika is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Castelnuovo won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:0. (average 1:0).

Last Results with these Odds

Omar Jasika - the odds 1.67 are the expected chance of winning is 55.72%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luca Castelnuovo
ATP Challenger
12.09.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Ilya Ivashka	0:2 ✺
11.09.26	Ji Sung Nam - Luca Castelnuovo	0:2 ✺
10.09.26	Tung-Lin Wu - Luca Castelnuovo	0:2 ✺
08.09.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Chun Hsin Tseng	2:1 ✺
07.09.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Tsung-Hao Huang	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.8 LWWWW
- Omar Jasika
ATP Challenger
11.09.26	Omar Jasika - Marat Sharipov	0:2 ✺
09.09.26	Rio Noguchi - Omar Jasika	0:2 ✺
08.09.26	Omar Jasika - Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong	2:0 ✺
07.09.26	Omar Jasika - Yaojie Zeng	2:0 ✺
01.09.26	Omar Jasika - Akira Santillan	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
19.09.25	Omar Jasika - Luca Castelnuovo	Jasika O. retired
ATP Challenger
09.09.25	Luca Castelnuovo - Omar Jasika	2:0

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