Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Tiburon, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 15 September 2026, Tuesday


	Luca Staeheli		Sebastian Gorzny

	1	2
	2.75	1.40	Watch
	3.10	1.33
	3.30	1.30	Watch
	2.86	1.37	Watch
	3.05	1.38
	3.09	1.32	Watch
	2.65	1.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.97 ↑ (2.44)	1.36 ↓ (1.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.50

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luca Staeheli
31.5%

Sebastian Gorzny
68.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.1%

61.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.3%

66.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luca Staeheli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Luca Staeheli's form might have worsened.

Sebastian Gorzny has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sebastian Gorzny's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luca Staeheli than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sebastian Gorzny than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Luca Staeheli - Sebastian Gorzny Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Staeheli is ranked ATP: 456. Gorzny is ranked ATP: 484.

Staeheli is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In recent matches, Gorzny has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Staeheli may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Gorzny could have a small edge in this match.

We predict that Staeheli will win today's game, with odds of 2.74.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luca Staeheli
ATP Challenger
14.09.26	Luca Staeheli - Roger Pascual Ferra	2:1 ✺
13.09.26	Luca Staeheli - Maxwell Exsted	2:1 ✺
19.08.26	Luca Staeheli - Juan Manuel La Serna	Staeheli L. Retired ✺
18.08.26	Luca Staeheli - Andrey Chepelev	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
16.08.26	Luca Staeheli - Louis Wessels	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 WW?WW
- Sebastian Gorzny
ATP US Open
02.09.26	Daniil Medvedev - Sebastian Gorzny	3:0 ✺
31.08.26	Sebastian Gorzny - Raphael Collignon	3:2 ✺
ATP Winston-Salem
24.08.26	Sebastian Gorzny - Cruz Hewitt	1:2 ✺
23.08.26	Felix Balshaw - Sebastian Gorzny	2:1 ✺
22.08.26	Sebastian Gorzny - Marc Polmans	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.7 LWLLW

Luca Staeheli - Sebastian Gorzny: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide