Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Tiburon - Qualification, hard - Final

Date: 14 September 2026, Monday


	Luca Staeheli		Roger Pascual Ferra

	1	2
			Watch
	2.80	1.36
	3.15	1.30	Watch
	2.99	1.42
	2.87	1.37	Watch
	2.90	1.40
	2.89	1.36	Watch
	2.85	1.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.92 ↑ (2.18)	1.37 ↓ (1.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 20.50

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luca Staeheli
31.9%

Roger Pascual Ferra
68.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.2%

57.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.4%

63.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luca Staeheli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Luca Staeheli's form might have worsened.

Roger Pascual Ferra has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Roger Pascual Ferra's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luca Staeheli than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Roger Pascual Ferra than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Luca Staeheli - Roger Pascual Ferra Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Staeheli is ranked ATP: 446. Pascual Ferra is ranked ATP: 659.

Staeheli is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Pascual Ferra has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Pascual Ferra is the team to beat.

We predict that Staeheli will win today's game, with odds of 2.86.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luca Staeheli
ATP Challenger
13.09.26	Luca Staeheli - Maxwell Exsted	2:1 ✺
19.08.26	Luca Staeheli - Juan Manuel La Serna	Staeheli L. Retired ✺
18.08.26	Luca Staeheli - Andrey Chepelev	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
16.08.26	Luca Staeheli - Louis Wessels	2:1 ✺
15.08.26	Luca Staeheli - Jeffrey Von Der Schulenburg	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 W?WWW
- Roger Pascual Ferra
ATP Challenger
13.09.26	Roger Pascual Ferra - Li Tu	2:0 ✺
ATP Winston-Salem
22.08.26	Roger Pascual Ferra - Dhakshineswar Suresh	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
17.08.26	Kenta Miyoshi - Roger Pascual Ferra	2:1 ✺
16.08.26	Roger Pascual Ferra - Mario Gonzalez Fernandez	2:0 ✺
02.08.26	Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez - Roger Pascual Ferra	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WLLWL

Luca Staeheli - Roger Pascual Ferra: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide