Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Jinan, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 9 October 2025, Thursday


	Mackenzie McDonald		Pavel Kotov

	1	2
	1.44	2.63	Watch
			Watch
	1.42	2.65	Watch
	1.48	2.72
	1.39	2.76	Watch
	1.44	2.68	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 (1.43)	2.69 ↑ (2.67)

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mackenzie McDonald
65.2%

Pavel Kotov
34.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.1%

34.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.7%

36.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mackenzie McDonald has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Pavel Kotov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mackenzie McDonald than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pavel Kotov than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Mackenzie McDonald - Pavel Kotov Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. McDonald will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Kotov will win (votes: 2 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Pavel Kotov will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

McDonald is ranked ATP: 99. Kotov is ranked ATP: 485.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

McDonald may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, McDonald is the team to beat.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, McDonald won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mackenzie McDonald
ATP Challenger
07.10.25	Mackenzie McDonald - Harold Mayot	2:0 ✺
ATP Shanghai
02.10.25	Mackenzie McDonald - Quentin Halys	0:2 ✺
30.09.25	Mackenzie McDonald - Rei Sakamoto	0:2 ✺
29.09.25	Mackenzie McDonald - Omar Jasika	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
27.09.25	Alex Bolt - Mackenzie McDonald	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 WLLWL
- Pavel Kotov
ATP Challenger
08.10.25	Pavel Kotov - August Holmgren	2:0 ✺
06.10.25	Akira Santillan - Pavel Kotov	0:2 ✺
05.10.25	Pavel Kotov - Sanhui Shin	2:0 ✺
22.09.25	Pavel Kotov - Ryan Seggerman	1:2 ✺
09.09.25	Pavel Kotov - Alejandro Tabilo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Miami
18.03.25	Pavel Kotov - Mackenzie McDonald	0:2

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