Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Shanghai - Qualification, hard - Final

Date: 30 September 2025, Tuesday


	Mackenzie McDonald		Rei Sakamoto

	1	2
			Watch
			Watch
	1.48	2.47	Watch
	1.54	2.54
	1.44	2.64	Watch
	1.5	2.48	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↓ (1.6)	2.53 ↑ (2.28)

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Mackenzie McDonald
63%

Rei Sakamoto
37%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.8%

41.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61%

39%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mackenzie McDonald has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Rei Sakamoto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mackenzie McDonald than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rei Sakamoto than the current prediction. (+2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Mackenzie McDonald - Rei Sakamoto Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +2.5 Games - Sakamoto (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Mackenzie McDonald will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Sakamoto (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Preview

McDonald is ranked ATP: 96. Sakamoto is ranked ATP: 190.

McDonald is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Sakamoto has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

McDonald may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

McDonald is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Mackenzie McDonald - the odds 1.6 are the expected chance of winning is 58.76%, but this team recently wins 70% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mackenzie McDonald
ATP Shanghai
29.09.25	Mackenzie McDonald - Omar Jasika	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
27.09.25	Alex Bolt - Mackenzie McDonald	2:1 ✺
26.09.25	Bernard Tomic - Mackenzie McDonald	0:2 ✺
25.09.25	Gauthier Onclin - Mackenzie McDonald	0:2 ✺
24.09.25	Rigele Te - Mackenzie McDonald	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WLWWW
- Rei Sakamoto
ATP Shanghai
29.09.25	Rei Sakamoto - Brandon Holt	2:0 ✺
ATP Tokyo
22.09.25	Aleksandar Vukic - Rei Sakamoto	2:0 ✺
22.09.25	Rei Sakamoto - Adam Walton	2:0 ✺
ATP Chengdu
16.09.25	Rei Sakamoto - Nikoloz Basilashvili	1:2 ✺
ATP US Open
21.08.25	Rei Sakamoto - Ignacio Buse	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WLWLL

Upcoming Matches