Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: US Open, hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 1 September 2026, Tuesday

Location: Arthur Ashe Stadium (New York, NY)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	HBO Max


	Madison Keys		Alina Korneeva

	1	2
	1.36	3.2	Watch
	1.36	3.10
	1.34	3.14
	1.38	3.38
	1.35	3.19	Watch
	1.35	3.2
	1.37	3.22	Watch
	1.35	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.36 ↑ (1.3)	3.2 ↓ (3.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 20.50

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Madison Keys
70.2%

Alina Korneeva
29.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

72.9%

27.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.1%

29.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Madison Keys has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Alina Korneeva has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Madison Keys than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alina Korneeva than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Madison Keys - Alina Korneeva Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Keys will win (votes: 6 - 75%). Korneeva will win (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Keys: 45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Keys (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Keys is ranked WTA: 24. Korneeva is ranked WTA: 89.

Recent performances by Keys have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Korneeva is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Korneeva may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Keys is seen as the favorite.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Madison Keys
WTA Cincinnati
21.08.26	Sara Bejlek - Madison Keys	2:1 ✺
19.08.26	Madison Keys - Xiyu Wang	2:0 ✺
18.08.26	Katerina Siniakova - Madison Keys	0:2 ✺
16.08.26	Daria Snigur - Madison Keys	1:2 ✺
WTA Toronto
06.08.26	Marta Kostyuk - Madison Keys	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LWWWL
- Alina Korneeva
WTA Cincinnati
12.08.26	Alina Korneeva - Alina Charaeva	Charaeva A. Walkover ✺
11.08.26	Alina Korneeva - Varvara Lepchenko	2:0 ✺
WTA Toronto
09.08.26	Alina Korneeva - Cori Gauff	0:2 ✺
07.08.26	Iva Jovic - Alina Korneeva	0:2 ✺
05.08.26	Alina Korneeva - Emma Navarro	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 ?WLWW

Madison Keys - Alina Korneeva: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide