Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: US Open, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: USTA Billie Jean King NTC (New York, NY)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	HBO Max


	Madison Keys		Qinwen Zheng

	1	2
	1.57	2.38	Watch
	1.57	2.35
	1.60	2.33
	1.65	2.42
	1.54	2.54	Watch
	1.62	2.35
	1.59	2.40	Watch
	1.55	2.40
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↑ (1.48)	2.4 ↓ (2.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Madison Keys
60.2%

Qinwen Zheng
39.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.9%

36.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.2%

32.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Madison Keys has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Qinwen Zheng has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Madison Keys than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Madison Keys, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Qinwen Zheng than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Qinwen Zheng, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Madison Keys - Qinwen Zheng Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Keys will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Zheng will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Keys: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

H/A, 1st Set - Zheng (2.16) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Keys (votes: 2 - 40%). Zheng (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Keys is ranked WTA: 24. Zheng is ranked WTA: 121.

Keys is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Zheng is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Keys may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Keys might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Keys won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Madison Keys
WTA US Open
03.09.26	Madison Keys - Anna Bondar	2:1 ✺
01.09.26	Madison Keys - Alina Korneeva	2:0 ✺
WTA Cincinnati
21.08.26	Sara Bejlek - Madison Keys	2:1 ✺
19.08.26	Madison Keys - Xiyu Wang	2:0 ✺
18.08.26	Katerina Siniakova - Madison Keys	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WWLWW
- Qinwen Zheng
WTA US Open
03.09.26	Qinwen Zheng - Yulia Putintseva	2:1 ✺
31.08.26	Qinwen Zheng - Kristina Liutova	2:1 ✺
28.08.26	Qinwen Zheng - Elena Pridankina	2:1 ✺
26.08.26	Qinwen Zheng - Clara Burel	2:0 ✺
24.08.26	Qinwen Zheng - Xiaodi You	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

WTA Miami
22.03.26	Qinwen Zheng - Madison Keys	2:1
WTA Washington
01.08.23	Qinwen Zheng - Madison Keys	0:2

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