Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: French Open, clay - 1/32-finals

Date: 28 May 2026, Thursday

Location: Stade Roland-Garros (Paris)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	HBO Max


	Maja Chwalinska		Elise Mertens

	1	2
	2.75	1.44	Watch
	2.66	1.45
	2.84	1.5
	2.79	1.44	Watch
	2.6	1.5
	2.78	1.5	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.74 ↓ (2.99)	1.47 ↑ (1.41)

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Maja Chwalinska
35%

Elise Mertens
65%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32%

68%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.4%

67.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Maja Chwalinska has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Elise Mertens has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Maja Chwalinska than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Elise Mertens than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	0%	83.3%

Maja Chwalinska - Elise Mertens Predictions

Users Predictions: Elise Mertens will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Chwalinska is ranked WTA: 114. Mertens is ranked WTA: 21.

Chwalinska is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Mertens has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Chwalinska may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Mertens is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Elise Mertens - the odds 1.41 are the expected chance of winning is 67.95%, but this team recently wins 90% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Maja Chwalinska
WTA Roland Garros
25.05.26	Maja Chwalinska - Qinwen Zheng	2:0 ✺
21.05.26	Maja Chwalinska - Suzan Lamens	2:0 ✺
20.05.26	Maja Chwalinska - Carole Monnet	2:0 ✺
18.05.26	Maja Chwalinska - Alice Rame	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
11.05.26	Federica Urgesi - Maja Chwalinska	Chwalinska M. Retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 WWWW?
- Elise Mertens
WTA Roland Garros
25.05.26	Tatjana Maria - Elise Mertens	0:2 ✺
WTA Roma
11.05.26	Elise Mertens - Mirra Andreeva	0:2 ✺
09.05.26	Jasmine Paolini - Elise Mertens	1:2 ✺
07.05.26	Panna Udvardy - Elise Mertens	0:2 ✺
WTA Madrid
26.04.26	Elise Mertens - Karolina Pliskova	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WLWWL

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