Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Kigali 2, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday


	Marco Cecchinato		Arthur Gea

	1	2
	2.75	1.4	Watch
	2.65	1.4
	2.88	1.47
	2.86	1.38	Watch
	2.63	1.44
	2.66	1.42	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.74 ↑ (2.55)	1.42 ↓ (1.45)

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marco Cecchinato
34.1%

Arthur Gea
65.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.3%

63.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39%

61%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marco Cecchinato has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Arthur Gea has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marco Cecchinato than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arthur Gea than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Marco Cecchinato - Arthur Gea Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Cecchinato will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Gea will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Cecchinato (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Cecchinato is ranked ATP: 225. Gea is ranked ATP: 161.

Cecchinato is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Gea has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Gea will hold a modest advantage in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Arthur Gea - the odds 1.45 are the expected chance of winning is 63.75%, but this team recently wins 89% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marco Cecchinato
ATP Challenger
13.03.26	Marco Cecchinato - Andrej Martin	2:0 ✺
11.03.26	Marco Cecchinato - Sandro Kopp	2:1 ✺
10.03.26	Marco Cecchinato - Guy Orly Iradukunda	2:0 ✺
06.03.26	Joel Schwaerzler - Marco Cecchinato	2:0 ✺
05.03.26	Marco Cecchinato - Jerome Kym	Kym J. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WWWL?
- Arthur Gea
ATP Challenger
13.03.26	Stefano Napolitano - Arthur Gea	0:2 ✺
12.03.26	Sean Cuenin - Arthur Gea	Cuenin S. retired ✺
10.03.26	Cesar Bouchelaghem - Arthur Gea	1:2 ✺
06.03.26	Stefano Napolitano - Arthur Gea	2:1 ✺
05.03.26	Calvin Hemery - Arthur Gea	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 W?WLW

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