Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Kigali, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 5 March 2026, Thursday


	Calvin Hemery		Arthur Gea

	1	2
	3.25	1.33	Watch
	3.1	1.32	Watch
	3.39	1.36
	3.38	1.28	Watch
	3.09	1.32	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.24 ↑ (2.75)	1.32 ↓ (1.4)

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Calvin Hemery
29%

Arthur Gea
71%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.7%

66.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.4%

69.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Calvin Hemery has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Arthur Gea has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Calvin Hemery than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arthur Gea than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Calvin Hemery - Arthur Gea Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Gea will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Gea (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Hemery is ranked ATP: 316. Gea is ranked ATP: 161.

At the moment, both players are looking strong and ready to play.

In this match, Gea is considered a favorite.

We predict that Gea will win today's game, with odds of 1.37.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Calvin Hemery - the odds 2.75 are the expected chance of winning is 33.73%, but this team recently wins 27% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Calvin Hemery
ATP Challenger
04.03.26	Calvin Hemery - Ryan Nijboer	2:0 ✺
03.03.26	Jay Clarke - Calvin Hemery	1:2 ✺
17.02.26	Timofey Skatov - Calvin Hemery	2:0 ✺
16.02.26	Max Houkes - Calvin Hemery	0:2 ✺
15.02.26	Cyril Vandermeersch - Calvin Hemery	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WWLWW
- Arthur Gea
ATP Challenger
04.03.26	Filip Cristian Jianu - Arthur Gea	0:2 ✺
03.03.26	Enrico Dalla Valle - Arthur Gea	0:2 ✺
ATP Montpellier
06.02.26	Adrian Mannarino - Arthur Gea	2:1 ✺
04.02.26	Arthur Gea - Tomas Machac	Machac T. retired ✺
02.02.26	Arthur Gea - Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard	Mpetshi Perricard G. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WWL??

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