Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Lisbon, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 26 September 2025, Friday


	Marco Trungelliti		Ignacio Buse

	1	2
	2.75	1.4	Watch
			Watch
	2.55	1.45	Watch
	2.5	1.57
	2.40	1.52	Watch
			Watch
	2.56	1.47	Watch
	2.4	1.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.53 ↑ (2.34)	1.49 ↓ (1.52)

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marco Trungelliti
37%

Ignacio Buse
63%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.4%

60.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.8%

65.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marco Trungelliti has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Ignacio Buse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marco Trungelliti than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ignacio Buse than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	0%	83.3%

Marco Trungelliti - Ignacio Buse Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Trungelliti will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Buse will win (votes: 4 - 80%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Buse (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Trungelliti is ranked ATP: 143. Buse is ranked ATP: 116.

Both players have recently enjoyed a winning streak.

Trungelliti may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Buse is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

We predict that Buse will win today's game, with odds of 1.51.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Trungelliti won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Ignacio Buse - the odds 1.52 are the expected chance of winning is 60.57%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marco Trungelliti
ATP Challenger
25.09.25	Marco Trungelliti - Guy Den Ouden	2:0 ✺
23.09.25	Daniel Elahi Galan - Marco Trungelliti	0:2 ✺
14.09.25	Marco Trungelliti - Mili Poljicak	Poljicak M. retired ✺
13.09.25	Marco Trungelliti - Filip Cristian Jianu	2:0 ✺
12.09.25	Marco Trungelliti - Franco Agamenone	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WW?WW
- Ignacio Buse
ATP Challenger
25.09.25	Thiago Monteiro - Ignacio Buse	0:2 ✺
23.09.25	Francisco Rocha - Ignacio Buse	0:2 ✺
Davis Cup World Group I
13.09.25	Ignacio Buse - Nuno Borges	2:1 ✺
12.09.25	Ignacio Buse - Jaime Faria	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
06.09.25	Genaro Alberto Olivieri - Ignacio Buse	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
07.06.25	Marco Trungelliti - Ignacio Buse	0:2

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