Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Lisbon, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 25 September 2025, Thursday


	Marco Trungelliti		Guy Den Ouden

	1	2
	1.57	2.25	Watch
			Watch
	1.72	2.01	Watch
	1.9	1.93
	1.55	2.31	Watch
	1.72	2.03	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↑ (1.52)	2.11 ↓ (2.34)

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marco Trungelliti
55.5%

Guy Den Ouden
44.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.6%

39.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.1%

34.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marco Trungelliti has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Marco Trungelliti's form might have worsened.

Guy Den Ouden has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Guy Den Ouden's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marco Trungelliti than the current prediction. (+9.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Marco Trungelliti, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guy Den Ouden than the current prediction. (-9.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Guy Den Ouden, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	0%	12.5%

Marco Trungelliti - Guy Den Ouden Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Trungelliti (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Den Ouden (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 Games - Trungelliti (1.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Marco Trungelliti will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Trungelliti (votes: 6 - 75%). Den Ouden (votes: 2 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Trungelliti is ranked ATP: 144. Den Ouden is ranked ATP: 160.

Both players have recently enjoyed a winning streak.

Den Ouden may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Trungelliti will hold a modest advantage in this match.

We predict that Trungelliti will win today's game, with odds of 1.52.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Marco Trungelliti - the odds 1.52 are the expected chance of winning is 60.57%, but this team recently wins 89% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marco Trungelliti
ATP Challenger
23.09.25	Daniel Elahi Galan - Marco Trungelliti	0:2 ✺
14.09.25	Marco Trungelliti - Mili Poljicak	Poljicak M. retired ✺
13.09.25	Marco Trungelliti - Filip Cristian Jianu	2:0 ✺
12.09.25	Marco Trungelliti - Franco Agamenone	2:1 ✺
10.09.25	Marco Trungelliti - Mika Brunold	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 W?WWW
- Guy Den Ouden
ATP Challenger
23.09.25	Guy Den Ouden - Elias Ymer	2:0 ✺
03.09.25	Guy Den Ouden - Carlos Taberner	Den Ouden G. retired ✺
02.09.25	Guy Den Ouden - Dominik Kellovsky	2:1 ✺
31.08.25	Gilles Arnaud Bailly - Guy Den Ouden	0:2 ✺
30.08.25	Frederico Ferreira Silva - Guy Den Ouden	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 W?WWW

Marco Trungelliti - Guy Den Ouden: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide