Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Lisbon, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 25 September 2025, Thursday


	Thiago Monteiro		Ignacio Buse

	1	2
	3	1.36	Watch
			Watch
	2.8	1.38	Watch
	2.74	1.47
	3.11	1.34	Watch
			Watch
	2.9	1.38	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.91 ↑ (2.57)	1.39 ↓ (1.46)

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Thiago Monteiro
32.3%

Ignacio Buse
67.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.2%

63.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.5%

64.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Thiago Monteiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Ignacio Buse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Thiago Monteiro than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ignacio Buse than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
58.3%	0%	41.7%

Thiago Monteiro - Ignacio Buse Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Monteiro will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Buse will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Monteiro: 35.2% – 92%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +4.5 Games - Monteiro (1.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 Sets - Monteiro (1.72) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Thiago Monteiro will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Monteiro (votes: 7 - 87.5%). Buse (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Monteiro is ranked ATP: 177. Buse is ranked ATP: 116.

In recent matches, Monteiro has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Buse is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Monteiro may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Buse might have a minor edge in this game.

We predict that Buse will win today's game, with odds of 1.4.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Monteiro won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Thiago Monteiro
ATP Challenger
23.09.25	Marco Cecchinato - Thiago Monteiro	0:2 ✺
18.09.25	Thiago Monteiro - Roman Andres Burruchaga	1:2 ✺
15.09.25	Thiago Monteiro - Daniel Merida Aguilar	2:0 ✺
09.09.25	Pablo Llamas Ruiz - Thiago Monteiro	2:0 ✺
05.09.25	Luciano Darderi - Thiago Monteiro	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WLWLL
- Ignacio Buse
ATP Challenger
23.09.25	Francisco Rocha - Ignacio Buse	0:2 ✺
Davis Cup World Group I
13.09.25	Ignacio Buse - Nuno Borges	2:1 ✺
12.09.25	Ignacio Buse - Jaime Faria	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
06.09.25	Genaro Alberto Olivieri - Ignacio Buse	1:2 ✺
05.09.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Ignacio Buse	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
15.03.25	Thiago Monteiro - Ignacio Buse	2:0

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