Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Indian Wells (USA), hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 9 March 2025, Sunday


	Marcos Giron		Alexei Popyrin

	1	2
	1.73	2.1	Watch
	1.75	2.05	Watch
	1.74	2.1	Watch
	1.76	2.17
	1.74	2.07	Watch
	1.73	2.1	Watch
	1.73	2.11	Watch
	1.74	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↓ (2.03)	2.1 ↑ (1.67)

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marcos Giron
54.7%

Alexei Popyrin
45.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.1%

54.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.3%

53.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marcos Giron has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Marcos Giron's performance.

Alexei Popyrin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alexei Popyrin might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marcos Giron than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Marcos Giron that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alexei Popyrin than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alexei Popyrin could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
68.7%	0%	31.2%

Marcos Giron - Alexei Popyrin Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Giron will win (votes: 20 - 66.7%). Popyrin will win (votes: 10 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Giron: 49.8% – 83.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Giron is ranked ATP: 48. Popyrin is ranked ATP: 27.

Giron is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Popyrin is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Popyrin could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both players.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Giron won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5:4 (average 1.7:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marcos Giron
ATP Indian Wells
07.03.25	Casper Ruud - Marcos Giron	1:2 ✺
05.03.25	Marcos Giron - Nikoloz Basilashvili	2:0 ✺
ATP Acapulco
27.02.25	Denis Shapovalov - Marcos Giron	2:1 ✺
26.02.25	Marcos Giron - Tommy Paul	Giron M. walkover ✺
24.02.25	Marcos Giron - Adam Walton	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WWL?W
- Alexei Popyrin
ATP Indian Wells
07.03.25	Zizou Bergs - Alexei Popyrin	0:2 ✺
ATP Dubai
26.02.25	Alexei Popyrin - Marin Cilic	1:2 ✺
24.02.25	Alexei Popyrin - Hady Habib	2:0 ✺
ATP Doha
17.02.25	Alexei Popyrin - Jack Draper	0:2 ✺
ATP Rotterdam
04.02.25	Jiri Lehecka - Alexei Popyrin	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Adelaide
04.01.23	Marcos Giron - Alexei Popyrin	1:2
ATP Montreal
07.08.22	Marcos Giron - Alexei Popyrin	2:1

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