Match Info

CHALLENGER WOMEN - SINGLES: Bastad, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 7 July 2025, Monday


	Maria Lourdes Carle		Darja Semenistaja

	1	2
	1.73	2.1	Watch
	1.7	2.1
	1.74	1.98	Watch
	1.82	2.02
			Watch
	1.62	2.2
	1.73	2.01	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↑ (1.53)	2.07 ↓ (2.44)

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Maria Lourdes Carle
54.5%

Darja Semenistaja
45.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.5%

38.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.3%

36.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Maria Lourdes Carle has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Maria Lourdes Carle's form might have worsened.

Darja Semenistaja has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Darja Semenistaja's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Maria Lourdes Carle than the current prediction. (+8.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Maria Lourdes Carle, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Darja Semenistaja than the current prediction. (-8.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Darja Semenistaja, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	0%	12.5%

Maria Lourdes Carle - Darja Semenistaja Predictions

Users Predictions: Maria Lourdes Carle will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Maria Lourdes Carle will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Carle is ranked WTA: 123. Semenistaja is ranked WTA: 128.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Semenistaja may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Carle will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Carle won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Maria Lourdes Carle
ITF Tournaments
04.07.25	Nuria Brancaccio - Maria Lourdes Carle	2:1 ✺
03.07.25	Sada Nahimana - Maria Lourdes Carle	1:2 ✺
02.07.25	Nina Vargova - Maria Lourdes Carle	0:2 ✺
WTA Wimbledon
24.06.25	Joanna Garland - Maria Lourdes Carle	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
11.06.25	Maria Lourdes Carle - Louisa Chirico	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LWWLL
- Darja Semenistaja
WTA Wimbledon
26.06.25	Aliaksandra Sasnovich - Darja Semenistaja	2:0 ✺
25.06.25	Iryna Shymanovich - Darja Semenistaja	0:2 ✺
24.06.25	Ella McDonald - Darja Semenistaja	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
10.06.25	Iryna Shymanovich - Darja Semenistaja	2:0 ✺
06.06.25	Maya Joint - Darja Semenistaja	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
03.04.25	Darja Semenistaja - Maria Lourdes Carle	2:0
ITF Tournaments
08.10.20	Maria Lourdes Carle - Darja Semenistaja	2:1

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