Match Info

CHALLENGER WOMEN - SINGLES: Changsha, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 2 September 2025, Tuesday


	Maria Lourdes Carle		Xinxin Yao

	1	2
	1.13	5.5	Watch
	1.13	5.25
	1.1	5.3
	1.14	6.04
	1.12	5.72	Watch
	1.17	4.5
	1.13	6.02	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.13 ↓ (1.32)	5.48 ↑ (3.26)

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Maria Lourdes Carle
82.9%

Xinxin Yao
17.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71.2%

28.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.6%

27.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Maria Lourdes Carle has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Maria Lourdes Carle's performance.

Xinxin Yao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Xinxin Yao might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Maria Lourdes Carle than the current prediction. (-10.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Maria Lourdes Carle that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Xinxin Yao than the current prediction. (+10.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Xinxin Yao could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Maria Lourdes Carle - Xinxin Yao Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Carle (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Preview

Carle is ranked WTA: 125. Yao is ranked WTA: 281.

In recent matches, Carle has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Yao has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Carle is a strong favorite.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Maria Lourdes Carle
WTA US Open
19.08.25	Maria Lourdes Carle - Carol Zhao	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
31.07.25	Maria Lourdes Carle - Nikola Bartunkova	0:2 ✺
30.07.25	Maria Lourdes Carle - Dalila Jakupovic	2:0 ✺
WTA Iasi
18.07.25	Maria Lourdes Carle - Sorana Cirstea	0:2 ✺
17.07.25	Elina Avanesyan - Maria Lourdes Carle	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LLWLW
- Xinxin Yao
ITF Tournaments
20.08.25	Tyra Caterina Grant - Xinxin Yao	2:1 ✺
12.08.25	Xinxin Yao - Alexandra Shubladze	1:2 ✺
07.08.25	Ksenia Zaytseva - Xinxin Yao	2:0 ✺
30.07.25	Angela Fita Boluda - Xinxin Yao	2:1 ✺
11.07.25	Xinxin Yao - Yujia Huang	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Upcoming Matches