Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Costa do Sauipe, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 25 October 2025, Saturday


	Mariano Navone		Christian Garin

	1	2
	1.53	2.38	Watch
	1.49	2.43	Watch
	1.48	2.50	Watch
	1.49	2.52	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↓ (1.59)	2.46 ↑ (2.24)

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mariano Navone
62.1%

Christian Garin
37.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.5%

41.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57%

43%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mariano Navone has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Christian Garin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mariano Navone than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mariano Navone that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Christian Garin than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Christian Garin could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Mariano Navone - Christian Garin Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Navone is ranked ATP: 85. Garin is ranked ATP: 107.

Navone has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Garin is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Navone might have a minor edge in this game.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Last Results with these Odds

Mariano Navone - the odds 1.59 are the expected chance of winning is 58.47%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mariano Navone
ATP Challenger
24.10.25	Mariano Navone - Pedro Boscardin Dias	2:0 ✺
23.10.25	Mariano Navone - Hady Habib	2:0 ✺
ATP Shanghai
02.10.25	Valentin Royer - Mariano Navone	2:1 ✺
ATP Tokyo
22.09.25	Sho Shimabukuro - Mariano Navone	2:0 ✺
ATP Hangzhou
17.09.25	Mariano Navone - Learner Tien	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 WWLLL
- Christian Garin
ATP Challenger
25.10.25	Andrea Collarini - Christian Garin	1:2 ✺
23.10.25	Genaro Alberto Olivieri - Christian Garin	0:2 ✺
05.10.25	Facundo Diaz Acosta - Christian Garin	1:2 ✺
04.10.25	Daniel Vallejo - Christian Garin	0:2 ✺
03.10.25	Hady Habib - Christian Garin	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WWWWW

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