Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Antofagasta, clay - Final

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday


	Facundo Diaz Acosta		Christian Garin

	1	2
	1.91	1.8	Watch
			Watch
	1.89	1.98
	1.79	1.94	Watch
			Watch
	1.87	1.87	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↓ (2.11)	1.9 ↑ (1.73)

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Facundo Diaz Acosta
50.4%

Christian Garin
49.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45%

55%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.6%

55.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Facundo Diaz Acosta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Facundo Diaz Acosta's performance.

Christian Garin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Christian Garin might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Facundo Diaz Acosta than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Facundo Diaz Acosta that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Christian Garin than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Christian Garin could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20.8%	0%	79.2%

Facundo Diaz Acosta - Christian Garin Predictions

Users Predictions: Christian Garin will win (19 of 24 users predict this - 79.17%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.92% – 95.42%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Christian Garin will win (15 of 16 users predict this - 93.75%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Diaz Acosta is ranked ATP: 265. Garin is ranked ATP: 125.

Now, both players are in good form.

Diaz Acosta may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Diaz Acosta won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2. (average 0:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Facundo Diaz Acosta - the odds 2.11 are the expected chance of winning is 44.98%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Facundo Diaz Acosta
ATP Challenger
04.10.25	Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva - Facundo Diaz Acosta	1:2 ✺
03.10.25	Alvaro Guillen Meza - Facundo Diaz Acosta	1:2 ✺
02.10.25	Facundo Diaz Acosta - Lukas Neumayer	2:0 ✺
30.09.25	Nicolas Kicker - Facundo Diaz Acosta	0:2 ✺
18.09.25	Facundo Diaz Acosta - Hynek Barton	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WWWWL
- Christian Garin
ATP Challenger
04.10.25	Daniel Vallejo - Christian Garin	0:2 ✺
03.10.25	Hady Habib - Christian Garin	1:2 ✺
01.10.25	Franco Roncadelli - Christian Garin	1:2 ✺
30.09.25	Benjamin Torrealba - Christian Garin	0:2 ✺
23.09.25	Christian Garin - Nicolas Kicker	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
05.01.23	Christian Garin - Facundo Diaz Acosta	2:0
ATP Buenos Aires
11.02.20	Facundo Diaz Acosta - Christian Garin	Canceled

Facundo Diaz Acosta - Christian Garin: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide