Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Mallorca, grass - 1/16-finals

Date: 21 June 2026, Sunday


	Mariano Navone		Lorenzo Sonego

	1	2
	2.38	1.57	Watch
	2.40	1.55
	2.28	1.62
	2.55	1.59
	2.3	1.59	Watch
	2.38	1.57	Watch
	2.40	1.59	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↓ (2.93)	1.58 ↑ (1.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mariano Navone
39.9%

Lorenzo Sonego
60.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.5%

67.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32%

68%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mariano Navone has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Mariano Navone's performance.

Lorenzo Sonego has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lorenzo Sonego might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mariano Navone than the current prediction. (-7.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mariano Navone that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorenzo Sonego than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lorenzo Sonego could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
21.1%	0%	78.9%

Mariano Navone - Lorenzo Sonego Predictions

Users Predictions: Lorenzo Sonego will win (15 of 19 users predict this - 78.95%).
Confidence interval (95%): 60.62% – 97.28%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lorenzo Sonego will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Navone is ranked ATP: 39. Sonego is ranked ATP: 65.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Sonego may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Sonego will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Navone won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:5. (average 0:2.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mariano Navone
ATP Roland Garros
27.05.26	Mariano Navone - Jakub Mensik	2:3 ✺
25.05.26	Mariano Navone - Jenson Brooksby	3:0 ✺
ATP Geneva
23.05.26	Mariano Navone - Learner Tien	1:2 ✺
22.05.26	Casper Ruud - Mariano Navone	0:2 ✺
21.05.26	Mariano Navone - Jaume Munar	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 LWLWW
- Lorenzo Sonego
ATP Halle
17.06.26	Ben Shelton - Lorenzo Sonego	2:0 ✺
14.06.26	Lorenzo Sonego - Nikoloz Basilashvili	0:2 ✺
13.06.26	Lorenzo Sonego - Filip Cristian Jianu	2:0 ✺
ATP Stuttgart
06.06.26	Lorenzo Sonego - Mert Alkaya	Canceled ✺
ATP Roland Garros
27.05.26	Lorenzo Sonego - Tommy Paul	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLW?L

Latest Head to Head

ATP Miami
20.03.25	Lorenzo Sonego - Mariano Navone	2:0
ATP Wimbledon
01.07.24	Mariano Navone - Lorenzo Sonego	0:3

Mariano Navone - Lorenzo Sonego: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide