Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Setubal, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 16 September 2025, Tuesday


	Mario Gonzalez Fernandez		Pedro Araujo

	1	2
			Watch
	2.3	1.53
			Watch
	1.48	2.44	Watch
	2.3	1.56	Watch
	2.44	1.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↓ (2.33)	1.76 ↑ (1.55)

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
45.2%

Pedro Araujo
54.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.9%

60.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.4%

63.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Mario Gonzalez Fernandez's performance.

Pedro Araujo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Pedro Araujo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mario Gonzalez Fernandez than the current prediction. (-8.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mario Gonzalez Fernandez that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pedro Araujo than the current prediction. (+8.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Pedro Araujo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez - Pedro Araujo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Gonzalez Fernandez is ranked ATP: 721. Araujo is ranked ATP: 474.

Gonzalez Fernandez is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Araujo has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Araujo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Araujo could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Gonzalez Fernandez won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
ITF Tournaments
11.09.25	Gian Luca Tanner - Mario Gonzalez Fernandez	2:0 ✺
09.09.25	Pedro Rodenas - Mario Gonzalez Fernandez	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
31.08.25	Max Alcala Gurri - Mario Gonzalez Fernandez	Gonzalez Fernandez M. retired ✺
ITF Tournaments
27.08.25	Mathys Erhard - Mario Gonzalez Fernandez	2:0 ✺
22.08.25	Jakub Filip - Mario Gonzalez Fernandez	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LW?LL
- Pedro Araujo
ATP Challenger
27.08.25	Gilles Arnaud Bailly - Pedro Araujo	2:0 ✺
25.08.25	Pedro Araujo - Elias Ymer	2:1 ✺
ITF Tournaments
22.08.25	Tom Paris - Pedro Araujo	2:0 ✺
21.08.25	Jose Freitas - Pedro Araujo	0:2 ✺
20.08.25	Nicolas Robert - Pedro Araujo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
08.03.25	Pedro Araujo - Mario Gonzalez Fernandez	2:0

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez - Pedro Araujo: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide